Statistics and Rationality

Throughout his Ted Talk in Exeter, United Kingdom, Alan Smith analyzes the relevance and intrigue associated with the field of statistics.  He emphasized the point that the significance of statistics lies in the fact that they're about us.  The realm of statistics gives insight into circumstances and phenomenon we would be ignorant to otherwise.  Smith highlights this point with the game he made to pit peoples expectations against the realities.  As one could expect, there is a tremendous diversion between the two (so much so that even England's leading statistician scored lower than 50% when tested about his own area).

Smith's main interest with the topic of statistics is its focus on data about us as a group rather than individuals.  This focus on the collective rather than the individual helps to reveal incredibly interesting information such as national numeracy rates.  I was amazed to learn that almost half of the population are numerically illiterate.  Smith illustrates that much of the inherent fascination associated with the study of statistics arises from surprising results.  Finding out that something in entirely not as expected is far more interesting than finding out something is just as you thought it was.

The acutely low numeracy rates among not only the UK but America and many other nations as well paired with people's relative inability to accurately estimate even local statistics may be cause for alarm.  It is troubling to imagine; however, it somehow makes a lot of sense.  Much of the worlds irrationality can likely be attributed to this frightening statistic as having a firm grasp of numbers and statistics grants rationality and good judgement.  When one can effectively utilize the tools of statistics rather than use their own personal biases their judgments will be far more accurate and their decisions: far more reasonable.

- Emmett Blansett